Directed Evolutionô provides a means
not only to predict but to direct future technological achievements in a given time
frame with a specified level of support. Most of the innovations that will
appear over the next 20 years will
be based upon scientific and technological knowledge existing now. The difficulty lies in
identifying what knowledge is of real significance. With hindsight, what seems obscure
be remarkably clear tomorrow. The role of Directed Evolutionô is to evaluate today's
knowledge systematically, thereby identifying what is achievable and, more particularly,
how one technological advance, perhaps in conjunction with another, could fulfill a human
The Directed Evolutionô process shown below
includes the following stages:
analysis of the systemís past (including patent citations, published
using the I-TRIZ methodology and tools
ideas for system evolution
decision-making process and protect intellectual property
process of system evolution
Detailed description of each stage:
STAGE 1. Collection and analysis of the systemís past
Accumulate necessary data (through patent assessments, interviewing
subject matter experts, reviewing related literature, etc.) about:
System structure, functionality,
evolution of system functions, problems that have appeared over the
system's evolution, etc.
The evolution of related and adjacent
History of the main ideas associated
with the system: discoveries, inventions, improvements, evolution of
product lines, etc.
System resources, changes in resources
as the system evolved, applicable new resources.
Problems and other obstacles regarding
the production process and its evolution.
Present state and evolutionary history
of applicable market sectors, user profiles, and customer
Present state and evolutionary history
of related organizations (competitors, vendors, etc.).
STAGE 2. DE diagnostics. Utilize I-TRIZ tools in order
Build evolutionary lines for the system.
Determine the current evolutionary
position of the system (S-curve analysis).
Reveal missed steps, future steps, wrong
directions, dead ends, stalemates, functional deficiencies,
unresolved contradictions, subsequent problems, customary
inconveniences, psychological inertia, tunnel vision, unreasonable
Predicting the highly-probable future
steps in system evolution
Defining the methods and conditions
required to realize these steps
Defining the limitations for realizing
STAGE 3. Synthesis of ideas
New functions, applications and markets
for the system.
Providing the systemís function(s).
Preventing harmful or undesired effects
associated with the system.
System production, delivery, usage,
Integrating the evolved system into
STAGE 4. Support the decision-making process
Integrating compatible ideas into
concepts, each of which represents a particular variant of system
Identifying concepts that are
compatible, complementary, or incompatible.
Identifying short-term concepts
(improvement), mid-term concepts (next generation), and long-term
concepts (future generations)
Formulating the goals for evolution and
the strategy and sequence by which these goals will be achieved.
Developing an action plan.
Identifying the required resources.
Protecting intellectual property.
Predicting potential obstacles and
disturbances along the way.
Predicting negative results of actions
taken and formulating associated subsequent tasks (secondary
Solving new problems that are revealed.
Introducing appropriate changes to the
STAGE 5. Support the process of system evolution
Monitor the evolution of the system for possible deviations or changes
in environment (demographics, social psychology, fashion, politics,
economic conditions, etc.)
Search for and analyze new scientific discoveries and inventions in
other areas that might relate to the system.
Identify and control critical points in the systemís evolution.
Analyze the planned versus actual results to reveal and predict
Solve inventive problems resulting from deviations (exploit deviations
as inventive resources, neutralize deviations; compensate for
deviations, or protect the system from deviations).
Integrate new solutions into the existing evolutionary scenarios.
Make corrections, refinements and adjustments to the DE scenarios should
significant changes (breakthroughs) occur in applicable social,
marketing or technological areas.
Update the DE recommendations as necessary, by reviewing basic concepts
on a regular basis and introducing appropriate corrections.
Establish and/or maintain an infrastructure (including education) to
support the DE process.
DE and the Patterns of Evolution
The Patterns of Evolution can be used
Directed Evolutionô is based on the 12 Patterns
of Evolution show above (which includes those discovered by TRIZ originator Genrich Altshuller) together with
over 400 Lines
of Evolution discovered by Zlotin and Zusman and their team. The DE
process has been applied not only to products but to markets, industries,
organizations, technologies, processes, and services.
See our published Directed Evolutionô
Directed Evolutionô (DE) Application